Understanding Probabilities
On Suri, every market shows a probability — the crowd's best guess at whether something will happen.
Reading the numbers
When you see a market like:
Will it rain in Metro Manila tomorrow?
Yes: 65% — No: 35%
This means:
- The crowd thinks there's a 65% chance it will rain
- Yes shares cost ₱0.65 each
- No shares cost ₱0.35 each
- If it rains, Yes shares pay ₱1.00 (profit: ₱0.35 per share)
- If it doesn't rain, No shares pay ₱1.00 (profit: ₱0.65 per share)
Percentages vs Cents
You might see probabilities displayed as either:
- 65% (percentage)
- 65¢ (cents)
These mean the same thing. 65¢ = 65% = the share costs $0.65 USD. Suri is standardizing to percentages for clarity.
When to bet
The key question: Do you think the real probability is different from what the market shows?
- Market says 65% but you think it's actually 85%? → Buy Yes (the market is underpricing it)
- Market says 65% but you think it's only 30%? → Buy No (the market is overpricing it)
- Market says 65% and you think that's about right? → Don't bet (no edge)
This is called finding edge. You make money when you're consistently better at estimating probabilities than the crowd.
Common mistakes
- Buying Yes at 95% because you're "sure" — Even if you're right, you're risking ₱0.95 to win ₱0.05. The risk/reward is terrible unless you're >95% confident.
- Ignoring the price — "I think yes" isn't enough. The question is always "I think yes AND the current price is too low."
- Not thinking in probabilities — Nothing is 100%. Even "sure things" have some chance of going wrong. Price accordingly.